The world is facing an extraordinary crisis. The COVID-19 pandemic has sent shockwaves throughout global communities, dislocated international supply chains and triggered steep selloffs in financial markets. It has already become clear that the high street will take on a very different form once the pandemic is over.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reassessed prospects for global growth in 2020 and 2021, declaring that we have entered a recession as bad or worse than that of the 2008 global financial crisis.
Against this backdrop, Retail Economics forecast a hit to the U.K. economy in the region of -15% of GDP in the second quarter of 2020 (quarter‑on‑quarter), before rebounding in the third quarter as the impact of the virus dissipates. At present, an accurate assessment of the duration and trajectory of the virus is difficult to determine.