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Exclusive Research

Consumer
Sentiment Survey

Fall 2023

The consumer resiliency that left an optimistic halo over the spring and summer months is beginning to fade. The U.S. consumer is cautiously expecting an economic downturn and steady inflation, and we are starting to see them plan accordingly. Shoppers are prioritizing basic needs and essentials while trimming cost and preparing for rising prices, recessionary climates, and limited holiday spending.

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Changes in Consumer Expectations

Compared to spring 2023, overall consumer sentiment is down in every area, except for a 1% increase in basic needs spending. However, when removing the outlier of spring’s optimism, the fall cycle shows improvements compared to last year.

Fall ‘22

100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
58%
61%
48%
51%
46%
54%
43%
46%
53%
55%
45%
49%
89%
88%
87%
90%
x
White
55%
LatinX
69%
Black
71%
Asian
48%
White
61%
LatinX
67%
Black
61%
Asian
45%
White
41%
LatinX
60%
Black
63%
Asian
32%
White
42%
LatinX
63%
Black
69%
Asian
39%
White
39%
LatinX
59%
Black
59%
Asian
51%
x
White
39%
LatinX
65%
Black
64%
Asian
49%
White
53%
LatinX
60%
Black
59%
Asian
43%
White
36%
LatinX
56%
Black
60%
Asian
41%
White
38%
LatinX
59%
Black
66%
Asian
49%
White
65%
LatinX
85%
Black
81%
Asian
77%
x
White
50%
LatinX
60%
Black
66%
Asian
43%
White
54%
LatinX
61%
Black
57%
Asian
45%
White
37%
LatinX
56%
Black
65%
Asian
34%
White
39%
LatinX
66%
Black
68%
Asian
49%
White
34%
LatinX
55%
Black
65%
Asian
46%
x
White
88%
LatinX
88%
Black
88%
Asian
93%
White
89%
LatinX
90%
Black
83%
Asian
91%
White
88%
LatinX
86%
Black
84%
Asian
86%
White
89%
LatinX
94%
Black
90%
Asian
89%
White
91%
LatinX
89%
Black
86%
Asian
91%

Expect things to get better for their family

Plan to save more

Expect to have more money for self & family

Plan to spend the same or more money on Basic Needs

Spending Plans By
Type Of Category

Categorical spending trends echo a decrease in unnecessary purchases. This past spring we saw all spend types up for the first time, but each has since fallen, with the biggest decreases coming from experiences and indulgences (down by 8%), landing them in the net negative spending plans.

  • Spring ‘22

  • Fall ‘22

  • Spring ‘23

  • Fall ‘23

View Spring ‘22 Demographic Champions View Fall ‘22 Demographic Champions View Spring ‘23 Demographic Champions View Fall ‘23 Demographic Champions

  • Spring ‘22

  • Fall ‘22

  • Spring ‘23

  • Fall ‘23

% Net More (More - Less)

DEMOGRAPHIC CHAMPIONS- Most likely to spend more in each category

Basic Needs: 18%

  • Age: 

    18-22

  • Household Income: 

    $150k+

  • Ethnicity: 

    Non-White

  • Gender: 

    Male

Experiences: -3%

  • Age: 

    23-35

  • Household Income: 

    $150k+

  • Ethnicity: 

    Hispanic

  • Gender: 

    Male

Gifts: -1%

  • Age: 

    18-35

  • Household Income: 

    $150k+

  • Ethnicity: 

    Asian

  • Gender: 

    Male

Indulgences: -9%

  • Age: 

    18-22

  • Household Income: 

    $150k+

  • Ethnicity: 

    Non-White

  • Gender: 

    Male

Basic Needs: 26%

  • Age: 

    18-35

  • Household Income: 

    $150k+

  • Ethnicity: 

    Non-Asian

  • Gender: 

    Male

Experiences: 9%

  • Age: 

    23-35

  • Household Income: 

    $150k+

  • Ethnicity: 

    Hispanic/Black

  • Gender: 

    N/A

Gifts: -5%

  • Age: 

    18-35

  • Household Income: 

    $150k+

  • Ethnicity: 

    Black

  • Gender: 

    Male

Indulgences: -12%

  • Age: 

    23-35

  • Household Income: 

    $150k+

  • Ethnicity: 

    Black

  • Gender: 

    Male

Basic Needs: 21%

  • Age: 

    18-35

  • Household Income: 

    $75-99k

  • Ethnicity: 

    Black

  • Gender: 

    Male

Experiences: -9%

  • Age: 

    23-35

  • Household Income: 

    $150k+

  • Ethnicity: 

    Black

  • Gender: 

    Male

Gifts: -9%

  • Age: 

    23-35

  • Household Income: 

    $150k+

  • Ethnicity: 

    Hispanic/Black

  • Gender: 

    Male

Indulgences: -23%

  • Age: 

    18-22

  • Household Income: 

    $150k+

  • Ethnicity: 

    Black

  • Gender: 

    Male

Basic Needs: 27%

  • Age: 

    23-35

  • Household Income: 

    $150k+

  • Ethnicity: 

    Black

  • Gender: 

    Male

Experiences: 7%

  • Age: 

    23-35

  • Household Income: 

    $150k+

  • Ethnicity: 

    Hispanic

  • Gender: 

    Male

Gifts: 3%

  • Age: 

    23-35

  • Household Income: 

    $150k+

  • Ethnicity: 

    White

  • Gender: 

    Male

Indulgences: -4%

  • Age: 

    23-35

  • Household Income: 

    $150k+

  • Ethnicity: 

    Hispanic

  • Gender: 

    Male

Basic Needs: 25%

  • Age: 

    23-35

  • Household Income: 

    $100k+

  • Ethnicity: 

    Asian

  • Gender: 

    Male

Experiences: -1%

  • Age: 

    23-35

  • Household Income: 

    $150k+

  • Ethnicity: 

    Black

  • Gender: 

    Male

Gifts: 1%

  • Age: 

    23-35

  • Household Income: 

    $150k+

  • Ethnicity: 

    Black

  • Gender: 

    Male

Indulgences: -12%

  • Age: 

    23-35

  • Household Income: 

    $150k+

  • Ethnicity: 

    Black

  • Gender: 

    Male

26%
21%
27%
25%
9%
7%
3%
1%
-9%
-1%
-5%
-9%
-12%
-23%
-4%
-12%

Basic

Experiences

Gifts

Indulgences

View Spring ‘22 Demographic Champions View Fall ‘22 Demographic Champions View Spring ‘23 Demographic Champions View Fall ‘23 Demographic Champions
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Consumer Spending Plans By Category

Respondents' desired categorical spending highlights the consumer’s basic needs prioritization. Food, hygiene, health, and pet supplies dominate the top 5 spending categories and are the only categories with net positive increases compared to spring.

  • SPENDING PLANS BY CATEGORY
  • % Net More (More - Less)

25%

Spring ‘22

22%

Fall ‘22

19%

Spring ‘23

25%

Fall ‘23

-10%

Spring ‘22

6%

Fall ‘22

4%

Spring ‘23

11%

Fall ‘23

8%

Spring ‘22

3%

Fall ‘22

3%

Spring ‘23

11%

Fall ‘23

-8%

Spring ‘22

-4%

Fall ‘22

0%

Spring ‘23

5%

Fall ‘23

-16%

Spring ‘22

-13%

Fall ‘22

-3%

Spring ‘23

-7%

Fall ‘23

6%

Spring ‘22

-12%

Fall ‘22

-5%

Spring ‘23

-1%

Fall ‘23

1%

Spring ‘22

-18%

Fall ‘22

-6%

Spring ‘23

-7%

Fall ‘23

0%

Spring ‘22

-18%

Fall ‘22

-7%

Spring ‘23

-10%

Fall ‘23

-11%

Spring ‘22

-20%

Fall ‘22

-7%

Spring ‘23

-7%

Fall ‘23

-8%

Spring ‘22

-21%

Fall ‘22

-9%

Spring ‘23

-10%

Fall ‘23

-9%

Spring ‘22

-17%

Fall ‘22

-10%

Spring ‘23

-7%

Fall ‘23

-13%

Spring ‘22

-22%

Fall ‘22

-11%

Spring ‘23

-11%

Fall ‘23

-12%

Spring ‘22

-23%

Fall ‘22

-14%

Spring ‘23

-16%

Fall ‘23

-15%

Spring ‘22

-24%

Fall ‘22

-14%

Spring ‘23

-11%

Fall ‘23

-23%

Spring ‘22

-28%

Fall ‘22

-17%

Spring ‘23

-19%

Fall ‘23

-18%

Spring ‘22

-33%

Fall ‘22

-20%

Spring ‘23

-22%

Fall ‘23
Consumers are letting economic uncertainty reign in their spending - retailers need to be prepared for how this could impact holiday spending.

Inflation Pressure

Inflation has stayed top of mind for consumers over the past year, as price expectations have remained relatively unchanged across the last two cycles (fall 2022 & spring 2023).

Price Expectations – Next 6 Months

  • EXPECT PRICES TO FALL
  • EXPECT PRICES TO RISE
  • EXPECT PRICES TO STAY THE SAME
6%
67%
27%
6%
65%
29%
9%
65%
26%

Fall ‘23

Spring ‘23

Fall ‘22

6%
67%
27%
6%
65%
29%
9%
65%
26%

Fall ‘23

Spring ‘23

Fall ‘22

DON’T KNOW/NO OPINION 15%
18% WILL BE IN THE NEXT 6 MONTHS
16% WILL BE IN THE NEXT 12 MONTHS
20% WILL NOT BE IN THE NEXT 6 MONTHS
52%
17% Will Be In Next
6 Months
15% Will Be In Next
7-12 Months
20% Will Not Be In Next
12+ Months
NOT CURRENTLY IN A RECESSION
33%
XX% WILL BE IN THE NEXT 6 MONTHS
XX% WILL BE IN THE NEXT 12 MONTHS
XX% WILL NOT BE IN THE NEXT 6 MONTHS
CURRENTLY IN A RECESSION
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Recession Expectations

In addition to inflation, consumer expectations have not changed from spring 2023 regarding a potential US recession – two thirds of consumers still believe we are currently in a recession or will be in one by next fall.

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Loyalty Program Motivators

This cycle we asked consumers about their involvement in loyalty/rewards programs and their motivation for participating. Our survey reveals that a majority of consumers (69%) join these programs looking to save money via a promotion/discount or redeemable reward.

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16%
3rd Place

Exclusive Access to Products and Services

36%
1st Place

Special Promotions and Discounts

33%
2nd Place

Reedeemable
Rewards

1st Place special promotions
and discounts		 36% Age: 23-55 HHI: $100K+
2nd Place Reedeemable
rewards		 33% Age: 56-80 HHI: < $100k
3rd Place Exclusive access to
products and services		 16% Age: 23-55 HHI: $100K+
4 Does not use loyalty/
rewards programs		 9%
5 Personalized
reccomendations or content		 4%
6 Enhanced
customer service		 2%
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The Who, Where, Why of Second-Hand Shopping

Over half of consumers are shopping second hand or resale today. Majority of respondents prefer to shop second hand in a physical store (68%) and are turning to resale to save money (71%).

Do you shop second-hand?

Do you shop
second-hand?

checkmark yes: 54%
X no: 46%

Why

Who - outline and graph of person walking to work with a briefcase
Where - outline and graph of house
Why - outline and graph of tree
White: 57%
Black: 43%
LatinX: 63%
Asian: 33%
Physical Store:
68%
Auction Site:
38%
Second Hand
App/Website:
32%
Retailer’s Second
Hand Program:
25%
Save on cost:
71%
Find rare vintage
or luxury items:
35%
Find items no longer
sold by retailer:
29%
Prefer the
experience:
27%
Support a
good cause:
27%

Holiday Participation

Although consumers do not have an appetite to spend big this holiday season, they still plan to spend more on gifts for themselves and others compared to last year (fall 2022). While respondents still prefer shopping in-store for everyday purchases, it will be a digital Christmas as 71% of consumers will be doing most of their shopping online this holiday season.

  • Amount I plan to spend on gifts for myself.
  • Amount I plan to spend on gifts for others.

Fall 2023

-10%
-21%

Fall 2022

-18%
-27%

  • Fall ‘22

  • Fall ‘23

-10% -18%
-21% -27%

% Net More (More - Less)

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